Bonn chance

It seems so recently that the world was young and alive with promise and we attended COP29 to provide sardonic updates on the breathtaking lack of progress. But actually it was way back in November so of course we’re now more than half-way to the next one, this time in Bonn. And you can’t have a conference of this sort without pre-conferences to achieve nothing and pave the way for further lack of accomplishment at the main event. Thus it is that Climate Home News sends an email headed “Slow start to Bonn climate talks” teasing to a story headed “UN climate chief laments lack of urgency” and whining “Anyone would think there’s no climate emergency.” And they’d be right. Can we go home now?

No. No you can not. In fact an argument could be advanced that the delegates have died and gone to hell instead where crude old-fashioned fire and brimstone have been replaced by endless pointless meetings. As the piece noted:

“The mid-year UN climate talks in Bonn were meant to open on Monday morning to advance key negotiations on the road to COP30 in Brazil. It took more than a day and a half to start for real. After much wrangling on the agenda behind closed doors, the opening plenary finally ended early Tuesday evening with the adoption of items to be negotiated. Cue polite applause and a bigger sense of discontent than satisfaction, especially among developing countries.”

Oh no, not you again.

Even covering it feels like purgatory. We don’t plan to attend even though frankly we’d rather spend time in Belém, Brazil than Baku, Azerbaijan, interesting as COP29 in Baku was as a case study in pompous futility. We expect there’d be better coffee in Brazil, and a lot more of it, for one thing. And also a rainforest to visit instead of the mud volcanoes from which, sadly, our souvenir mud seems to have dried out. However it seems pointless to go, since there will be so little movement we could just refile our coverage from last fall.

For instance the bit about developing countries apparently believing they’re about to hit the pot of green at the end of the rainbow. Or the inability to conduct a meeting without it dissolving into endless climate and environmental gabfests at which the same people say the same long-winded stuff to the same audience including about hating Donald Trump, or worse, haggling over the agenda, yet they all feel good about themselves until suddenly they’re down and bleak and feel compelled to hop on another airplane for their next fix of carbon-footprint-heavy virtue signalling.

This business about wrangling endlessly over an agenda is the mark either of a very badly disorganized gathering or a very well disorganized one… the latter if you assume that the organizers understand that the meeting cannot accomplish what many present hope.

“The sticking point? Developing countries’ request to formally discuss the implementation of Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement – on finance provided by rich nations – and climate change-related unilateral trade measures.”

Aaaack. The Paris Agreement? Forget the world seeming young in Baku. COP21 in Paris in 2015 were the real halcyon days, the roses in bloom, the girls pretty, the Seine flowing, the Eiffel Tower towering, and nationally determined contributions meaning nothing. Oh, the memories. Who even remembers that the next one was in Marrakech? Or that we now spell that city that way? Or that:

“The purpose of the conference was to discuss and implement plans about combatting climate change and to ‘[demonstrate] to the world that the implementation of the Paris Agreement is underway’.”

Under water, more like. Incidentally, perhaps having nothing of greater substance to point to, the Wikipedia article on it includes that “On 2 May 2016, events firm GL Events signed the service contract.” And at least there were sandwiches. Achievements? Not so much.

And so to Bonn. Literally, because a year and six days ago we wrote:

“We know you all cannot wait for COP29. It will be ‘historic’. They all are. But fear not. All eyes are currently not on Bonn where blah blah blah. In fundraising to cover this non-event, Climate Home News wrote ‘The mid-year climate talks in Bonn are a key event for policy makers, researchers and NGOs working to move climate action forward, but one that gets little attention from the world’s media.’”

Which we caustically attributed to the vanishing likelihood that they were a key event or would accomplish anything, especially on… [rummages through blue recycling bin] the promise of a huge pile of cash for poor countries to cope with the ravages of climate or just stuff into their plutocratic political systems. We even expressed doubt that having 8,000 people show up was liable to improve the efficiency of that gathering unless, again, the whole point was to have it lumber unmanageably to nowhere.

We did get a breathless email telling us:

“Please find below the embargoed speech of Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, at the opening of the UN June Climate Meetings – formally called the 62nd session of the Subsidiary Bodies (SB62) – on Monday, 16 June.”

And after a brief and uncharacteristic flicker of pity for anyone who might find this announcement exciting, or even sufficiently above the tedium of their incarceration in Hades that they were tempted by “You can watch the livestream at this link”, we were sardonically motivated to observe that it’s the 62^nd session. You are doing nothing but meet. Admit it.

Apparently only 5,000 people will stagger to this one. But don’t worry. There are others. Back in May Climate Home News gushed:

“COP30 may still be six months away – with the venue not yet finished and an accommodation platform eagerly awaited – but negotiations over what will be agreed in Belém began in earnest in Panama this week. Speaking to reporters from the Panama Climate Week, Brazil’s lead climate diplomat Liliam Chagas said she is keen to strike early deals, at the upcoming Bonn talks, on responding to the 2023 Global Stocktake and setting up a work programme on the just transition.”

Got that? Negotiations on what will be negotiated in negotiations about the negotiations. On which you spent how much money, airplane carbon credits and hope? It’s a complete fantasy land.

Thus a month or so ago we got a notification that:

“Tomorrow, Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change (UNFCCC), will deliver a major speech at the 2025 Nature Summit in Panamá. In his remarks, he explains how new national climate plans (NDCs) – due from all countries ahead of COP30 – are ‘really about growth’ and ‘are an antidote to economic uncertainty’.”

A major speech. We don’t know if his flacks ever put out an announcement that he’ll deliver a minor one. It might not enhance your prospects of a bonus. But could a search party find that speech now, or that summit? Or that growth? Or that antidote? And do you have an antidote for feelings of purposelessness and depression?

Well, another conference. Otherwise not. Instead here’s what Stiell, who we’re not sure whether he’s one of the souls in torment, one of the tormentors, or both, told the delegates gathered in Bonn for this year’s Sisyphean exercise, who somehow apparently did not collapse in laughter or tears:

“There is lots of complex work ahead, so allow me to start with a few simple truths. First: this process matters, deeply. The progress you make in the next 10 days makes a very real difference to billions of lives and livelihoods, in every country. These sessions are where we move from concept to clarity – across sectors, systems, and societies. You are laying down the tracks that further deliver implementation. In the real economy – where deep emissions cuts and transformative adaptation must be delivered. Quickly and fairly.”

No it doesn’t, no they’re not and no they’re not because none of it will happen. None. They will make no progress, it will make no difference, there will be no move to clarity, nobody will cross systems, there will be no tracks and no “further” delivery of implementation. There will be no deep emission cuts. There will be no “transformative adaptation”. There will be no speed and no fairness.

There will however be soy lattes and gluten-free cookies. There always are.